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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

But this year's field is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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